STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF FERTILITY FACTORS IN UKRAINE: EVOLUTIONARY CHANGES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE WAR
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2667.2025/226-1/4Keywords:
composite indices, population contingents, cohorts, socio-political factors, demographic factors, fertilityAbstract
B a c k g r o u n d . In the current aggravation of the demographic crisis, it is extremely important to comprehensively analyze the factors influencing the course of demographic processes. The situation has been significantly aggravated by the full-scale military invasion, which has accelerated the negative effects of many demographic and socio-economic processes in Ukraine, which have already begun to show signs of threatening the regime of population recovery. Unfortunately, a full analysis of the impact of the war on Ukraine's demography will be possible only after it is over. However, certain demographic processes are still available for full analysis, one of them being the fertility rate. Studying the factors influencing the fertility rate since Ukraine's independence should outline the existing problems, characterize the impact of demographic policies in Ukraine, and suggest approaches to improving the situation.
M e t h o d s . General statistical, demographic and scientific methods were used, in particular: statistical observation, descriptive statistics, distribution and approximation series, time series, indices and the method of cohort forecasting. Methods of synthesis and grouping, logical comparison and graphical methods were also used.
R e s u l t s . It was found that most of the demographic factors of fertility have exhausted their reproductive resources. The complex sociopolitical factors over the last 30 years that have led to this exhaustion are described. The impact of a full-scale military invasion on the current state of fertility and the further development of the demographic factors of fertility is tentatively assessed.
C o n c l u s i o n s . Based on the results of the quantitative assessment of fertility factors and the analysis of the historical complex of sociopolitical events, the reasons for the exhaustion of the demographic potential of population reproduction are outlined and proposals for the stimulation of the fertility process in Ukraine are formulated. The study stresses the need to move away from traditional, formal approaches to the stimulation of demographic processes and to establish a socially oriented dialogue between the government and the population, which should mitigate the negative impact of people's concerns.
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