THE IMPACT OF THE WAR EFFECTS ON HUMAN SOCIAL SECURITY IN UKRAINE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2667.2025/227-2/1Keywords:
social security, human social security system, external shocks, war in Ukraine, VAR modelsAbstract
B a c k g r o u n d . The paper explores the impact of such external factors as military aggression from russia on the human social security system in Ukraine. During the war, this system is affected mainly by external factors. Moreover, in the case of Ukraine, the dominant external influence is the military aggression against Ukraine. Thus, the purpose of this study is to determine the impact of external disturbances that determine the sustainability of human social security in Ukraine during a hybrid and full-scale war.
M e t h o d s . For this purpose, we used the most influential internal factors that exerted an influence on human social security in Ukraine during the war (people using at least basic sanitation services as % of population, proportion of people living below 50 percent of median income in %, domestic credit to private sector by banks in % of GDP, internally displaced persons, new displacement associated with conflict and violence, number of cases, armed forces personnel in million people). To study the impact of military aggression from russia on the human social security system in Ukraine we used vector autoregression models framework. The fact of military aggression we incorporated in models by using russia's military expenditures in current billion US dollars as it correctly reflects the most acute phases of the conflict and preparation for the war in 2021.
R e s u l t s . The results of the models showed that the dynamics of the proportion of people living below 50 percent of median income is characterized by significant deterioration, especially after the eighth period after the shock. Fluctuations of this indicator are explained at almost 50% by changes in military expenditures in russia. The decrease in domestic credit to the private sector by banks in the first period after the shock in military expenditures in russia is up to 7%. Then the situation improves, but it still is lower than the equilibrium level. The volatility of domestic credit to the private sector by banks is nearly 22% explained by fluctuations in russia's military expenditure. In addition, we observe an immediate increase in the number of internally displaced persons and new displacements associated with conflict and violence by up to 35 %. At the same time, the volatility of the number of internally displaced persons and new displacements is explained by the volatility of military expenditures in the Russian federation at 95%. Also, an immediate rise of the personnel of the armed forces in Ukraine due to the shock is up to 8% which tails off until the sixth year. Changes in military expenditure in russia explain 91% of fluctuations of this indicator.
C o n c l u s i o n s . Finally, it may be concluded that the system of human social security in Ukraine is relatively stable due to the influence of external factors.
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